To avoid this dilem上海乌托邦 option for the Fed is to

consider the timing and degree of rate cuts after trade friction uncertainties are eased after the G20 summit, which ended last week.

Internally, US economic data that will be released in the middle of this month may cement the Fed’s determination to cut rates.上海乌托邦

Since 2011, whenever the actual US GDP growth rate exceeded the endogenous growth rate

by more than 1.5 percent, the actual figure underperformed the theoretical figure in th上海乌托邦

e next quarter. That’s because a significant departure from endogenous growth can hardly sustain.

上海乌托邦女神会所In the first quarter of this year, the actual growth rate outpaced the theoretical rate by 2.09 percent, the highest level since the fourth quarter

of 2011. If the historical pattern still works, this strong economic data could mean a sharp plunge in the second quarter.

上海乌托邦As the Fed said it will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlo

ok, disappointing economic data to be released later this month may become the last straw for the Fed t

o act. Therefore, a clear rate cut sign and path may emerge at the FOMC meeting at the end of this month after the Fed digests the data.

Secondly, the market may have forecast the timing of rate cuts earlier than the Fed’s actual plan. The rate cut window is expected to open as late as in the fourth quarter.上海乌托邦女神会所

Before the latest FOMC meeting, traders saw a more than 70-percent chance that the first rate cut will take p

lace this month, as well as a 96-percent chance that at least one rate cut will take place by the end of September.

However, this estimation may excessively go ahead of the Fed’s actual moves. We expect that the上海乌托邦女神会所

rate cut window will open in the fourth quarter, with the first cut likely to come in December or January.

Looking back in history, the average time the Fed took to switch their rate policy – or the time interval between las上海乌托邦女神会所

t rate hike and first rate cut and vice versa – has been 11.7 months since 2000, even excluding the post-2008 prolonged low-rat

e period. Based on this pattern, the rate cut is unlikely to come this month but more likely to come after September.

Besides the historical pattern that probably continues, two new factors will also delay the timing of the first rate cut.

On the one hand, the current US policy rate is the lowest among those in all the periods when the

Fed planned to start a round of rate cuts, indicating the limited room for rate cut. This makes it nec

essary to use the limited rate cut capacity at an appropriate timing, which may occur later than the market expects as

the US growth pressure will not peak this year but in 2020, according to IMF estimates.

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ang diplomatic ties. T上海会所品茶微信e visit comes just

over a week befo上海会所品茶微信re the G20 summit suggests the DPRK nuclear issue could be discussed between Xi and Trump on the sidelines of the summit.

With Pyongyang seeking economic development, there is an opportunity for China and the DPRK to strengthen their compre

hensive friendship and deepen cooperation. The two sides have already strengthened cooperation in tourism, pe

ople-to-people exchanges and pharmaceuticals, which are allowed by the UN sanctions.

During their meeting, Xi and Kim might discuss how to deepen cooperation in security, including den

uclearization, and trade and regional development, including exploring the potential of T

umen River economic cooperation, and cooperation in developing China’s northeast region.

To work with other countries in such programs, the DPRK has to expedite the denuclearization process and focus on its eco

nomy, because a peaceful Korean Peninsula will be conducive to the DPRK’s economic development, and vice-versa.

qchen.cn

In 2019, the zodiac stamps 上海乌托邦品茶微信o let’s have a look!

55The Zodiac sta 上海乌托邦品茶微信mps have always been a hot topic in the collection category. Since the release of the Gengshen monkey stamps in 1980, they

have been issued to the fourth round. In January 5, 2019, the fourth round of pig tickets will be released.

“The Year of Hai” is a set of 2 postage stamps for the Year of Pig,

s called “Fertile Pig Wangfu”. The belly of a fat pig hides the universe, and it is simple.

It expresses the joy of the vivid wind by running dynamically, which symbolizes the running towards a better life.

The second picture is “five benefits gathering”. It is the first time to fully reflect the concept of “family

design of the Olympic Fuwa, but as early as the first round of Chinese Zodiac stamps, Han Meilin had participated in the design of the 1983 pig

ticket. The fourth round of the chicken lunar new year stamps is also designed by him. After a year, he

is once again a designer of pig tickets. The 82 year old teacher, Han Meilin, has been working tirelessly

for the sake of art. This spirit is also worthy of our praise for such an excellent master of Art.

The details of the 2019 porcine Zodiac stamps are as follows:

www.8216078.cn

New Year’s Eve train t上海后花园女神会所d today! Look

January 6 (Xiong 上海后花园女神会所Jiali) Spring Festival is approaching. Have you bought any tickets? New Year’s

Eve train tickets are on sale today. Get ready to rush for tickets!

It ispring Festival Transport in 2019, China’s railways are expected to

send 41.33 million passengers, an increase of 31.76 million passengers, an increase of 8.3% over the

sameage of 10.33 million passengers per day, a new record for the Spring Festival Transport.

This week, we caught up with the train tickets in the rush period of the Spring Festival Transport

(December 27, 28, 29), especially today (6), just in time for the train tickets on New Year’s Eve (February 4). For returnees who want to

catc the 6th day is a rare time to grab tickets.

There are many good news for the Spring Festival Transport in 2019, including the “standby ticket purchase”

function on line, the proportion of online ticket purchase requiring verification codes has been greatly reduced, and so on. In addition, since

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life, trade in services, and food and agricultura produc

said Tian Ye, general manager assistant of the exhibition department of the CIIE bureau.

Newly added exhibits this year include cutting-edge technologies su

ch as telemedicine for the elderly care, augmented reality and virtual reality prese

ntation, as well as maternal and children’s products, and high-end consumer goods.

An 11-year-old boy has taken up a mission to save his father’s life in an unexpected way — by eating as much as he possibly can.

The father is in need of a bone marrow transplant, and the hospital will only do it if the donor is a cer

tain weight (45 kilograms), according to hen.wenming.cn, and the heavier the weight, the better.

www.qianhanwenhua.com.cn

The leading pipa player says that though she has perfor

rformed on stage along with Western instruments such as guitars and violins, it was the first tim

e she performed the piece with a balalaika player, and she was excited to see the outcome.

“Music itself is the language. Despite the fact that we are from different countries, when we s

tart to play, we can communicate with each other through music,” Zhao said.

The China National Traditional Orchestra performed a concert in t

he Bolshoi Theatre, Moscow, on Wednesday, presenting a fusion of Chinese and Russ

ian music and celebrating the 70 years of diplomatic relations between the countries.

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Individual users can search information about their educa

tion and traffic violation record, among others, while enterpris

es can apply for certain licenses and certificates online via the mini-program.

The mini-program is also connected with local government online

service platforms in several provinces including Guangdong and Zhejiang, while more loc

al e-government services will be connected in the future, the statement said.

E-government services via apps and mini-programs are increasingly popular in China

amid national and local efforts to cut administrative red tape to benefit residents and businesses alike.

A total of 30 provincial-level regions have established int

egrated e-government platforms that incorporate the services of pro

vincial, city and county governments, according to a report released in May.

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Nobel laureate Mo Yan and a dozen winners of the presti

gious Luxun and Maodun literature prizes, including Ge Fei, A Lai and Su Tong, together

with a group of renowned Shanxi writers and poets gathered that week to discuss literary depictions of the countryside.

The village has a literary tradition which dates back to the mid-20th century, when a new Chin

ese modern literary genre shanyaodan, a nickname for a potato that’s popular in North China, emerged.

Authors who follow the shanyaodan school of writing such as Zhao Shuli, Ma Feng and Xi

Rong were all living in the Shanxi countryside, where their work centered around rural life there.

Many of Ma’s works in particular were written in Jiajiazhuang, where he witnessed the changes to the village broug

ht about by the agricultural cooperatives during the 1950s after moving to work in Fenyang.

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so important to be working at the state and local

l level. Because in that fashion, by building these relationsh

ips now, hopefully we get a more stable relationship nationally going forward

China’s National Supercomputing Center in the South China ci

ty of Shenzhen on Friday launched a testbed for artificial intelligence experiments.

The AI testbed, named Tai, provides the basic environment of AI chi

ps and systems for the research, development and application tests of AI inventions.

Tai is capable of dealing with large-scale and complex scenarios. Scientists have built

an EB-level intelligent data management and analysis system for high-energy physics, as well as si

mulation of AI scenarios in real business situations and an AI-powered weather forecast platform said Holden.

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Presented in parallel, work by contemporary artist Cai Gu

oqiang gives visitors a glimpse of modern Chinese art. Created specially for this exhibition, hig

hlight pieces include the monumental installation of 10,000 suspended porcelain birds.

Spiraling over visitors’ heads, the birds create a three-dimensional impression of a calligraphic drawing o

f the sacred Mount Lishan, the site of the ancient tomb of China’s first emperor, Qin Shihuang, and his warriors.

Cheng Jingye, Chinese ambassador to Australia, said at the preview ceremony that the exhib

tion represents another highlight in this year’s China-Australia cultural-and-arts exchange.

“I know that the Terracotta Warriors are very familiar with the

journey to Australia,” he says. “In 1982, to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the establishment of d

iplomatic relations between China and Australia, Australia was chosen as the destinatio

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